It is a cliché that international cooperation is crucial in the fight against terrorism, but like many clichés, it is also true. That is why this conference, bringing together stakeholders from across the globe, is so important. UNOCT is playing an important role strengthening international CT cooperation. I would like to thank my friends Vladimir Voronkov and Raffi Gregorian for their leadership.

I am frequently asked whether we are winning the fight against terrorism. The answer is: we aren't… yet.

To be sure, in Europe we have managed to significantly strengthen our resilience against terrorism. Twenty years ago, few experts would have foreseen the degree of cooperation in counter-terrorism that we have now achieved in our continent, primarily because of the structure for cooperation that the European Union offers. Without it, we would be far less safe and more lives would have been lost to terrorism. This mirrors the great strides that other regions have made in their counter-terrorism arrangements since 9/11.

Over the last twenty years, the EU has strengthened counter-terrorism partnerships and dialogues with a wide range of countries, such as the US, with our neighbours in the Western Balkans, around the Mediterranean, in the Sahel, and with other friends. The EU has significantly increased capacity-building support, including via UNOCT.

Nevertheless, despite the great progress we achieved in counter-terrorism cooperation in the last twenty years, we continue to face terrorist attacks on our continent. And in some other parts of the world, the terrorist threat has steadily grown since 9/11, despite colossal investments to counter it. We just need to compare the number of terrorists across the globe in 2001 with the number in 2021 to reach the sobering conclusion that our efforts have not been effective enough. Since 2001, the threat of terrorism has not diminished, but grown in large parts of the world. It may be an illusion that we can ever eradicate terrorism altogether, but we should have achieved a better return on our investment of the last two decades.

The evolution of Da'esh and Al-Qaida illustrates our problem. Da'esh has lost territorial control in the Middle East, but it is far from defeated in that region. On a global scale, Da'esh is expanding. Its centre of gravity is shifting to Africa. Al-Qaida also remains a capable global terrorist organisation thanks to its affiliates. In this globalised world, developments in one country, region or continent influence those in another. The wide geographical spread of their affiliates are a great strategic advantage for Da'esh and Al-Qaida: they just need to win somewhere to prove their relevance and have an impact world-wide. For us Governments, it is the reverse: we need to win everywhere to be truly effective. Transnational cooperation is not a choice, it is an imperative.

Why have we not succeeded in reducing the threat over the last twenty years, despite many local and temporary successes in Europe and elsewhere? I see two main causes.

First, more investment is needed in the prevention of terrorism, which is a pillar of the UN and EU CT strategies. Unfortunately, counter-terrorism is too often treated as essentially a security-sector endeavour, and prevention as an afterthought. Military is sometimes necessary to fight armed terrorists, but it should not be the starting point of counter-terrorism; it should be a last resort.

Over the last twenty years, States have undertaken numerous costly and risky military operations to defeat terrorist groups. I supported many of these efforts, because they were necessary. When terrorists plan or commit atrocities, they must be arrested and prosecuted. Once terrorists establish a foothold and begin to terrorise the local population, countries have no choice but to defeat them, depriving them of their territorial control. I commend all the soldiers and police officers who risk their lives to protect our citizens from terrorists. In this forum, I would also like to express my admiration for the work of the security and intelligence services that investigate and foil attacks.

But these efforts alone will never suffice. To reduce the terrorist threat in a lasting way, we need to do more to tackle the environment in which terrorist organisations thrive, in Europe and world-wide. We should not just cooperate in the suppression of terrorism where it exists, for instance by sharing intelligence, but we should also work together to make sure that terrorism does not occur at all, by exchanging ideas and best practices on prevention.

To begin with, this means listening to people who express grievances, respecting human rights, fighting discrimination, tackling corruption, establishing better governance and creating economic, educational and cultural opportunities in particular for young people, so that they can thrive and develop critical thinking skills. Dedicated programmes are also needed to prevent radicalisation and rehabilitate former terrorists who have served their sentences. More broadly, we are not yet doing enough to address the ideology which is driving jihadist terrorism, justifying violence and also creating a narrative of “us vs them”. Unfortunately, some States do not view the terrorist threat as a reason to strengthen efforts to improve the lives of members of ethnic and religious minorities, but as a pretext to marginalise and oppress them. In the longer term, such an approach is completely counterproductive, serving as a breeding ground for radicalisation.

The second factor explaining the persistence of the terrorist threat is our (all too human) tendency to fight yesterday's fight. New terrorist ideologies will arise in the future and we should take action early to prevent such ideologies from spreading. The grievances and frustrations that fuel existing terrorist ideologies will also change.

Terrorists of all stripes have been exploiting the Covid-19 pandemic in their propaganda. However, the pandemic appears to have benefitted right-wing and left-wing violent extremists relatively more than Da'esh and Al-Qaida, because it has allowed them to tap into a whole new support base. Diffuse anti-government protests in Europe, sparked by government measures to contain the pandemic, have been incited and ideologically appropriated by right-wing and left-wing extremists. States should take early action to counter such new threats.

Whereas the Covid-19 pandemic already has an impact on the terrorist threat we are facing, it may be followed by other pandemics, with serious repercussions for our security. Increasing scarcity of resources resulting from climate change may also contribute to generate support for terrorism in the future.

Terrorists exploit hate speech and disinformation to radicalise and recruit supporters. States that deliberately spread or amplify conspiracy theories online to undermine others as rivals, do so at their own peril, because ultimately, terrorist groups benefit from such actions.

Freedom of expression is crucial in counter-terrorism, as it enables journalists and the publics to hold governments to account for their efforts to protect them from the terrorist threat. At the same time, it is important that major digital companies are transparent about the way in which their algorithms generate recommendations for internet users, potentially amplifying hate speech and disinformation at the expense of moderate and mainstream views.

States should not simply assume that terrorist attacks remain low-tech, as they have mostly been in recent years. It is a matter of time before terrorists discover the opportunities offered by cloud labs, drones, biotechnologies and other forms of disruptive tech. Terrorists and criminals have already used 3D printing to acquire weapons. States should pass legislation to reduce terrorists' access to new technologies, and equip our law enforcement services with the means to counter new attack methods.

In the longer term, new technologies, notably artificial intelligence, will transform our societies and economies. Many countries are slow in responding to the pace of technological development. Instead, they should be proactive in developing policies and legislation to optimise the benefits of artificial intelligence for our citizens, reduce the risks of malicious use of such technology by terrorists and other criminals, and use the new technologies as a powerful tool for law enforcement and justice.

We should not limit ourselves to responding to new developments when we are confronted with them, but forge our own future.

This is my last high-level CT conference at the UN as EU Counter-Terrorism Coordinator. I would like to thank all of you. Over the last 14 years in the job, I have had the opportunity to visit many countries and meet many of you. We have learnt from each other and deepened cooperation. Together, we have made a lot of progress. International cooperation is much stronger than before.

I wish all of you an excellent conference and success in your endeavours to counter terrorism.