Quarterly EU Economic Update: Forged in Crisis – How the War in Ukraine May Strengthen the European Union & the Transatlantic Relationship
The Russian invasion of Ukraine has unleashed a humanitarian crisis and a major macro-economic shock that fundamentally changes the global economic outlook. The EU is directly exposed to spillovers from the conflict, but the impact will be more pronounced for countries on its eastern border. Surging commodity prices, disrupted supply chains, and unprecedented trade and financial sanctions will all weigh on growth and push inflation higher in the near-term.
With that said, key economic indicators show that the European economic expansion overall should remain strong enough to weather these war-related disruptions and continue its recovery. The outlook is clouded by significant uncertainties regarding the outcome of the war in Ukraine, the impacts of economic sanctions on Russia, and possible responses from Russia and other major geopolitical actors. It is clear that the war presents many challenges for the EU, especially over the medium-term, and it drives home the need to accelerate the energy transition. Securing clean, reliable sources of energy are now not simply an environmental priority, but a matter of geopolitical security for Europe.
It is often said that Europe will be forged in crises but with challenges come opportunity. The continent is responding with solidarity, strengthening and deepening the European Union while providing aid to Ukraine. Forceful policy actions are reinforcing a broad-based economic recovery by supporting business and household incomes, encouraging investment, and promoting the green and digital transitions.
Join us for an in-depth discussion of the challenges and opportunities facing the European economy. Our panel will begin with an update on the European Commission's newly released Spring 2022 Economic Forecast, the first to factor in the war in Ukraine and associated sanctions on Russia.
We will then discuss the major challenges and opportunities facing Europe, covering a variety of possible scenarios and key questions facing policy makers:
- What is the inflation outlook and how should policy makers respond?
- How should the EU adjust its fiscal stance to deal with the impact of the war?
- What policy tools are available to ease the uneven impact of the war and refugee inflow on different EU member states?
- How are businesses likely to adapt their supply chains?
- What are the main EU policy developments in the energy sector?
- What does the war mean for the broader global economic and financial architecture that has been in place since World War II?
- Balazs Parkanyi, Counsellor for Economic and Financial Affairs, EU DELEGATION TO THE UNITED STATES
- Ben Carliner, Senior Economist, EU DELEGATION TO THE UNITED STATES
- Yvonne Bendinger-Rothschild, Executive Director, EACCNY [Moderator]