First quarter growth proved better than expected in Europe. In both the Euro Area and EU as a whole, GDP expanded 0.3% as Germany returned to growth and Spain, Ireland, and the Baltics (among others) reported strong expansions. These green shoots are welcome following a challenging 2023 in the EU and growth is expected to gradually pick up over the course of the year as the headwinds from tight financial conditions fade and falling inflation along with a still solid labor market helps boost real disposable income. The growth divergence between the US and EU that marked 2023 is already closing, with the US just barely growing faster than the EU (0.4% to 0.3%) over the first three months of the year.

Yet 2024 holds a few uncertainties on both sides of the Atlantic. Financial conditions remain restrictive, with both the ECB and the Fed, focused on incoming inflation and labor market data as they assess any potential changes to their monetary policy stances. Supply chains are being reshaped as firms and policy makers aim to improve resilience and promote investment in critical economic sectors.

Both the EU and the US will hold consequential elections this year – the EU in June and the US in November. These elections could have important policy implications touching on everything from the fiscal impetus to industrial policy, climate change, and trans-Atlantic relations.

The panel will address:

• Recent economic developments the EU and US (Employment dynamics, Growth across the continent)
• Debt development across Europe (Consumer, corporate & member states)
• Inflation dynamics (consumer spending, corporate spending)
• Energy markets
• Deficit spending and fiscal sustainability
• Industrial policy
• Upcoming elections

SPEAKERS:
• Ben Carliner, Senior Economist, DELEGATION OF THE EU TO THE U.S.
• Dimitrios Rakitzis, Senior Economist, ECB REPRESENTATION IN WASHINGTON, D.C.
• Yvonne Bendinger-Rothschild, Executive Director, EACCNY [Moderator]