When Trade Routes Are Attacked, the Consequences Are Felt Everywhere

In today's interconnected world, what happens thousands of kilometres away can affect the price of food, the cost of shipping and the reliability of supplies here in the UAE and around the world.

For people living in the Gulf, the importance of safe supply chains is clear. The region sits at the crossroads of some of the world's most important routes for energy and goods. The Strait of Hormuz and the Bab el-Mandeb are vital to global trade, and when shipping through them is disrupted, the effects are quickly felt in transport costs, energy prices and the wider economy.

Similarly, Ukraine is a vital global agricultural producer, but growing food is not enough, it has to be stored, transported and shipped to the countries that need it. Russia's attacks on Ukraine's ports, ships, warehouses, transport routes and agricultural infrastructure therefore matter far beyond Ukraine. They threaten Ukraine's ability to get food to international markets, with consequences for people across the world.

Russian attacks are deliberate actions, and the pattern is hard to ignore. The attacks on ports and transport routes intensified precisely as Ukraine's harvest and export season began. As a result, Ukrainian grain exports in August were half the level of the previous year, and international prices have already risen as a result.

The situation could become more difficult in the coming months. Ukraine could run short of storage space by October, and by November more than 9 million tonnes of grain, oilseeds and meal could be left without available storage.

This is not a problem for Ukraine alone. Ukraine has long been an important supplier of food to global markets, including countries in the Gulf. Before Russia's full-scale invasion in February 2022, Ukraine accounted for 15 per cent of global corn exports, 10 per cent of wheat exports, 15–20 per cent of barley exports and half of the world's sunflower oil exports. If Ukrainian farmers cannot sell this year's harvest, they will have less money to plant and prepare for next year, meaning today's disruption could affect tomorrow's world food supply as well. And the people who suffer most from rising food prices and shortages are often those who can least afford them, at a time when an estimated 645 million people worldwide already face hunger. 

With billions of people already facing food insecurity, the world cannot afford new threats to the trade routes carrying Ukrainian grain to global markets. A strong harvest is expected again this year, with higher yields than in 2025, but a good harvest only helps feed people if it can actually reach them. Because food security depends not only on what we produce at home, but on whether the global system that brings food to our markets remains reliable 

The UAE has been notably forward-looking in investing in in resilient supply chains, diversified food sources and strong international connections. Nevertheless, no country can fully insulate itself from disruptions in an interconnected global economy: when one part of the system comes under strain, the effects are soon felt elsewhere. We have seen this with shipping, with energy, and now we are seeing it with food. 

Just as Iran’s attacks on energy facilities, water desalination plants and other civilian infrastructure are unacceptable, attacks on Ukraine’s trade routes and food infrastructure must not be tolerated either.  Trade routes must be kept open, and the infrastructure that allows food to move must be protected. There must be no attacks on grain export facilities, farms, agricultural infrastructure or civilian ships. Commercial vessels must be able to travel safely, and farmers and businesses need to know they can get their products to market.

A ceasefire and a lasting peace are the only way to end the suffering of the Ukrainian people and restore the stability that global trade and food supplies depend on. But until that happens, we must do everything possible to protect Ukraine’s agricultural production and ensure that its exports can continue to reach international markets. This is vital not only for Ukraine’s economy, but for the global food security.

The EU is helping to make this possible. Since May 2022, the EU Solidarity Lanes have provided alternative routes for Ukrainian exports, moving grain and other goods to international markets while supporting Ukraine's economy. The EU is also supporting additional storage capacity, assisting Ukrainian farmers in accessing finance, and working with partners to make cross-border transport faster and more efficient.

But alternative routes cannot fully replace safe access to the Black Sea, through which around 90 per cent of Ukraine's agricultural exports pass. This is why we also need the international community to continue pressing Russia to stop its attacks on Ukraine's ports, agricultural infrastructure and civilian shipping.

For Europe, the message is simple: we all depend on trade routes that cross borders and connect continents, on ships being able to travel safely, and on food being able to reach the people who need it. That is why ports, farms, warehouses and civilian ships must be protected.

The international community should continue to push for a ceasefire and a lasting peace, while supporting practical solutions that keep food moving in the meantime. Food should never become a weapon of war.