Singapore: Speech by HR/VP Borrell at Shangri La Dialogue

03.06.2023 EEAS Press Team

The speech was made in the 3RD plenary panel on “RESOLVING REGIONAL TENSIONS”

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Ladies and gentlemen, excellencies, tout protocole observé, as we say in Brussels, and thank you to everybody.

I am very glad to be here at the Shangri La Dialogue and discuss regional tensions with my colleagues from Indonesia and with South Korea.

I know how important is this forum, and I also know the crucial role played by Singapore, as a source of moderation and equilibrium in the region which is at the heart of the global competition today. Yes, in Europe we have a war in our borders but the epicentre, the core of the global competition, is in the Indo-Pacific, is here.

And I would like to start saying some words about how do I look at the international system in order to explore how Europeans and Asians can work together to prevent another military confrontation in the region. Yes, because [in] the international system [it] is here, in Asia, in this part of the world, where the chances are bigger.

The international system is based on a dual dynamic which affects directly Asia and its security: this dynamic is not bipolarity, neither a multipolarity – it is both. We have both. We have a bipolarity, driven of course by the US-China competition – a competition which is deeper than the previous Soviet-American rivalry because it covers all fields including technological competition, which was limited during the Cold War. This competition is political, is ideological, economic, technological and strategic. And Asia is the main area of that competition.

And then there is another, another part of the system, which is purely multipolar and is expressed that many other countries in the world become more assertive and refuse to remain passive, have their own national agenda. And multipolarity is the product of globalisation and the wider distribution of wealth all over the world. And, as Europeans, we accept that reality.

And we have the vision of being upholders of this new multipolarity. We accept the idea that the world is becoming multipolar and we have no intention to oppose the rise of emerging nations which believe that their time has come in history.

On the other hand I know that, despite the regular presence of Member States of the European Union, my colleagues ministers of defence, in this forum, for many years, Europe is still largely seen as an extra-regional actor with limited impact on the regional security dynamics of the Indo-Pacific or Asia.

And the war in Ukraine has reinforced this feeling – the feeling that now Europe is turning inward and is limiting its global exposure despite our strong messages reasserting the opposite.

So I will use this moment, this speech, in order to try to express to you which are the fundamental reasons for our regional commitment in face of the fact that security today is a continuum in a globalised world; the evolution of our approach with the adoption of the Strategic Compass, and our aim for better effectiveness in order to be a “smart enabler” for security and defence.

My starting point is to underline that Europe and Asia have a direct stake in each other’s security and that we have to work together in order to avoid a confrontation in the region.

Nothing is far away in a globalised world. As I said, security is a continuum across the space, and any war or any major security crisis in one region affects everyone, everywhere.

And you cannot either divide the economics of the security. You cannot compartmentalise because security tensions will affect the economy, and the economy probably will create security tensions.

Allow me to present some figures in order to illustrate that.

This year, Asia and the Pacific will contribute to more than 60% of global growth – 60% of global growth. It is clear that Asia is the beating heart of the global economy and your maritime routes are the arteries of the global economy, because every day 2000 ships transport goods across the Indian Ocean and the South China Sea to Europe and back – 2000 ships every day.

Our economic links are getting stronger: they have reached an incredibly high level, unimaginable 40 years ago. But the global security environment continues to get worse. Our economic links increase; our security landscape is becoming more and more dangerous.

There is less trust among the main players; less respect for international law and multilateral agreements; force and coercion are on the rise.

It is not law but force which is increasingly shaping our world.

And, unsurprisingly, everybody expands their military spending. Why? Because people are afraid. And they are afraid because they face challenges. And since they face challenges, they buy arms. A lot of arms. And the figures illustrate this course of rearmament.

World military spending last year grew to an all-time high, reaching $2.2 trillion. It’s because of Russia’s war in Ukraine? Yes, it had an effect. And certainly the military expenditure of countries in Europe is today 30% higher than in 2013, before the Russian annexation of Crimea. We have increased 30% since Russia invaded Crimea. Because it was a war.

But here, in Asia, you don’t have a war and in spite of that the trend of your military expenditure is even greater.

Last year the military expenditure in Asia and Oceania was 45% higher than in 2013.

So, in the last ten years, we have increased our military expenditure by 30% and you by 45% which shows clearly that we live in a dangerous world where people feel insecure and in order to look for security, an old reflex as old as humankind, they go and buy arms.

And it shows that we must do more to build trust and address regional tensions. And that it is our common responsibility to defend security principles whenever and wherever they are threatened – be it in Ukraine or in the South China Sea or anywhere else.

Yes, dear colleagues, we must bring a peace to Ukraine. But a peace that could be considered a just peace. You know, I know how to finish the war in Ukraine. I know. It’s quite easy. We stop supporting militarily Ukraine and the war would finish in a couple of weeks. But how it will finish? Doesn’t it matter? Or, does it matter? If it matters, then we cannot stop supporting militarily Ukraine. Because we don’t want a peace which is the peace of the cemeteries, the peace of surrender, the peace of the stronger, the peace that may create a second Belarus. But, yes, the war will finish.

So the question is, then, is not to finish the war, but how we finish the war. And that’s why we will keep on supporting Ukraine although we want peace as much as anyone else in this room.

And at the same time we must be sure that the Indo Pacific stays “pacific,” as Indonesian Foreign Minister Retno Marsudi rightly said last month when we met in Stockholm for the European Union Indo-Pacific Forum. And as the Spanish sailors, the first time they sailed this water, called it “pacific” because it was surprisingly – very surprisingly – because the water was so calm compared with the Atlantic.

My first point is that we have to be committed to do just that. To look for peace wherever: in these waters and in the lands of central Europe.

My second point is to explain to you how the war against Ukraine is changing Europeans’ role in security and defence. This is important per se. But it is also important because, for you, because a more capable Europe is a better partner including with Asia.

Maybe not many people know in this region that in the last 15 months in Europe we have been breaking political taboos.

For the first time ever, we have been funding military support to a country under attack. Providing about €40 billion of military support to Ukraine, coming from the [EU] Institutions, coming from the resources I manage in Brussels, and coming from the Member States. Yes, much less than the US support. But if you add up all the support – military, civilian, economic, financial and humanitarian – the level of support to Ukraine is about €60 billion for Europe. But let me show another figure which is really impressive: if you include the support that the European governments have had to pay in order to help their families and firms to face the high prices of electricity, of food, the subsidies to our people in order to face the consequences of the war is €700 billion – ten times more than the support for Ukraine. Which shows that the consequences of this war are not reduced to what’s happening in Ukraine but to the shockwaves that the war has been sending all around the world.

We have been developing methods to increase our industrial capacity to support Ukraine. We have trained 30,000 Ukrainian soldiers during this year, and we will increase our estimated defence capacities by about €100 billion more, to modernise our armies and invest in new technologies.

This is a game changer; this war is changing the role of Europe. Europe was and is a project for peace and about peace: peace among us and a force for peace for the rest of the world. But now we face a world where the war is something that is in every corner, and these corners across our houses. And we have to defend our interests, our strategic domains, be it on land, in space, be it maritime, or in cyberspace. We don’t have choices. The worst choice would be to look to the other side and let history go by the bad way because this war could not finish by giving victory to the aggressor.

But our transformation also makes us a more capable partner for Asia.

And this brings me to my third and final point: what can we do with you, with our Asian partners, to promote security together? To face the tensions rising, from the South China Sea, to the Taiwan Strait, to the [Democratic People’s] Republic of Korea.

We see more military build-ups, more unilateral moves. Yes, each case is specific.

But I want to stress that the European Union will always defend international law, including the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea and the non-proliferation regime.

And because, in our DNA, we have always favoured multilateral solutions and regional approaches, we are very glad that under our Strategic Partnership with ASEAN, our security cooperation is a growing component. And we are pleased to participate with members of ASEAN in regional navy exercises. And we are happy to see that the navies of Asian partners work with us in Operation Atalanta – which are good examples of what we can do concretely.

At the bilateral level, we have security and defence dialogues with China, Japan, India, South Korea and others. I think this type of cooperation can be more than just dialogues but to make them as concrete and operational as possible.

Ladies and gentlemen, let me wrap up. My core message is that the European Union is a reliable security partner.

We are not a classic military alliance; we are not a traditional great power throwing its weight around. We don’t have the 6th or 7th Fleet to be deployed in the Indo-Pacific. We are not even a state, but a constellation of states. But these states have a certain technological capacity that we want to develop in order to become a “smart enabler,” investing in shared security. In Europe and in the Indo-Pacific.

And that is my message. You can count on us. As much as you could also be part of a great coalition to ensure peace in these great oceans. We need each other. We need to stabilise this world. The challenges we are facing don’t let other solutions than strong cooperation. Avoiding conflict, and increasing cooperation among people around the world, in Europe and the Indo-Pacific. Stop this war in a fair manner and avoid that the new conflicts could appear on our horizons. This will be an excellent labour for this forum.

Thank you.

Peter Stano
Lead Spokesperson for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy
+32 (0)460 75 45 53
Nabila Massrali
Spokesperson for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy
+32 (0) 2 29 88093
+32 (0) 460 79 52 44